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長城寧述勇中國將成全球新能源汽車產業核心
2020-01-05 22:55  www.idc-online.cn

  隨著2020年的到來,經過10年產業化的中國新能源汽車產業開始駛入新棋局:一方面,經過多年努力,我國新能源汽車產業技術水平顯著提升、產業體系日趨完善,產銷量、保有量連續四年居世界首位;另一方面,在整體車市下行、補貼退坡等因素的影響下,新能源汽車也不可避免受到了沖擊。

With the arrival of 2020, after 10 years of industrialization, China's new energy automobile industry began to enter the new chess game: on the one hand, after many years of hard work, China's new energy automobile industry technology level has been significantly improved, the industrial system is becoming more and more perfect, production and sales, and the amount of ownership have been ranked first in the world for four consecutive years; on the other hand, under the influence of the overall car market downward, subsidies and other factors, new energy vehicles cannot avoid the impact.

  補貼取消后新能源汽車會不會出現負增長?面對激烈而又殘酷的技術與市場競爭,車企該如何抉擇?新能源汽車特別是純電動汽車的價值到底體現在哪?帶著這些問題,《經濟參考報》記者近日采訪了長城汽車股份有限公司副總裁、新能源汽車歐拉品牌總經理寧述勇。

Will there be negative growth for new energy vehicles after subsidies are eliminated? In the face of fierce and cruel technology and market competition, car companies how to choose? What is the value of new energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles? With these questions in mind, the Economic Reference reporter recently interviewed Ning Shuyong, vice president of Great Wall Automotive Co. Ltd. and general manager of the new energy car Euler brand.

  回顧中國新能源汽車產業的高速發展,離不開補貼政策的正向激勵。不過,當補貼開始逐漸退坡后,從2019年7月起,新能源汽車市場便出現了銷量“五連降”。

The rapid development of China's new energy automobile industry cannot be separated from the positive incentive of subsidy policy. However, after the subsidy began to gradually decline, from July 2019, the new energy car market has seen \"five consecutive sales decline \".

  按照2019年6月發布的規劃,2020年期間新能源補貼將全面取消,這是否意味著2020年的新能源汽車市場將面臨更多的不確定性?寧述勇認為,補貼的取消的確會引發一連串的連鎖反應,但展望新能源汽車的未來,政策段的利好不僅仍然存在,或許還會更“猛烈”。

According to the plan released in June 2019, the new energy subsidy will be completely eliminated during 2020, does this mean that the new energy car market in 2020 will face more uncertainty? Mr Ning believes that the elimination of subsidies will indeed trigger a chain reaction, but looking ahead to the future of new energy vehicles, the policy benefits are not only still there, but perhaps more aggressive.

  他說,除了新能源補貼政策外,引導車企朝新能源汽車方向發展的還有雙積分政策。2020年,雙積分政策會進一步推進,激勵傳統汽車廠商加大新能源車型的推出力度。

In addition to the new energy subsidy policy, he said, there is a two-point policy that guides the development of car companies towards new energy vehicles. In 2020, the policy of double points will be further advanced, and traditional automobile manufacturers will be encouraged to increase the launch of new energy models.

  2017年9月27日,工信部發布了《乘用車企業平均燃料消耗量與新能源汽車積分并行管理辦法》,即業界所稱的“雙積分制”。“雙積分制”規定,車企生產燃油車會得負積分,生產新能源汽車則會得到正積分,而在年度考核時,車企需要保證自己的總積分為正。

On September 27,2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the \"passenger car enterprise average fuel consumption and new energy vehicle integral parallel management method,\" which is called\" double integral system \"by the industry. The \"double-integral system\" stipulates that car companies will get negative points for producing fuel vehicles and positive points for producing new energy vehicles, while in the annual assessment, car companies need to ensure their own total points are positive.

  根據文件條例規定,車企2019年和2020年的積分比例需分別達到10%和12%,只是2019年的積分可以并軌考核,而2020年則將分開單獨計算。由此,各大車企2020年均將迎來雙積分“大考”。

According to the document regulations, the car enterprises in 2019 and 2020 need to achieve 10% and 12% of the points, respectively, but 2019 points can be assessed in parallel, and 2020 will be separately calculated. As a result, each big car enterprise in 2020 will usher in double points \"big test \".

  不僅如此,排放更加嚴格的國六標準也在助攻新能源汽車產業。2016年底,國家質檢總局和環保部聯合發布的國標《輕型汽車污染物及測量方法(中國第六階段)》明確提出,國六(A)標準和國六(B)標準會分別在2020年7月1日以及2023年7月1日兩個時間點實施。另外,根據國務院發布的打贏藍天保衛戰三年行動計劃,從2019年7月1日起,重點區域(京津冀及周邊、長三角和汾渭平原)、珠三角地區、成渝地區已提前實施國六排放標準。

Moreover, the stricter national six standards are helping the new-energy auto industry. By the end of 2016, the AQSIQ and the Ministry of Environmental Protection jointly issued the GB \"Light Vehicle Pollutant and Measurement Method (Phase VI of China)\", which clearly stated that the national six (A) standard and the national six (B) standard would be implemented on July 1,2020 and July 1,2023 respectively. In addition, according to the three-year action plan issued by the State Council to win the blue sky defense war, from July 1,2019, the key regions (Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and its periphery, Yangtze River Delta and Fenwei Plain), the Pearl River Delta region and Chengdu-Chongqing region have implemented the national six emission standards ahead of time.

  寧述勇說,國六標準的上馬,意味著國三標準的車可能會被強制報廢,國四標準的車將不允許上牌,國五標準的新車則面臨貶值風險。對車企而言,隨著標準的升級,對于排放的處理會變得越來越復雜,研發成本更是成倍增加,與其這樣,不如干脆一步到位,將所有的精力和成本放在未來的終極目標——新能源汽車上。

Ning said the country's six standards on the horse, means that the country's three standards of the car may be forced to scrap, the country's four standards of the car will not be allowed to license, the country's five standards of new cars face the risk of depreciation. For car companies, as standards upgrade, emissions will become more complex and research and development costs will multiply, so instead, put all your energy and costs to the ultimate goal of the future, new energy vehicles.

  另外,國家發改委、生態環境部、商務部還于2019年6月發布了《推動重點消費品更新升級暢通資源循環利用實施方案(2019-2020年)》,提出各地不得對新能源汽車實行限行、限購,并加快由限制購買轉向引導使用。

In addition, in June 2019, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment and the Ministry of Commerce issued the \"Implementation Plan for Promoting the Renewal and Upgrading of Key Consumer Goods \"(2019-2020).

  寧述勇說,這一政策對于人口密度高的大城市來說,無疑是非常大的利好,尤其是對上下班的白領來說,新能源車不限行是一種“剛需”。

Ning said that this policy for the population density of the big cities, is undoubtedly very good, especially for white-collar workers to and from work, new energy vehicles unlimited is a \"rigid demand.\"

  綜上所述,寧述勇認為,雖然補貼的消失會短期抑制新能源車銷量,但隨著雙積分、國六標準以及不限行不限購等新政策的助力,新能源汽車將從2020年開始會有質的飛躍。

To sum up, ningshuyong believes that although the loss of subsidies will short-term suppression of new energy vehicle sales, but with the help of double points, national six standards and unlimited restrictions and other new policies, new energy vehicles will start from 2020 will have a qualitative leap.

  2019年新能源汽車之所以迎來低迷時刻,除了補貼退坡的影響,也和新能源車暴露出來的續航存在短板、充電難、保值率低等問題有關。

In addition to the impact of the downturn in subsidies, the 2019 downturn in new energy vehicles is also linked to problems such as short board, difficult charging and low preservation of value, which are exposed to new energy vehicles.

  對此,寧述勇表示,此前人們對新能源汽車的“容忍度”很高,不過,從2020年起,新能源汽車的競爭將會更激烈,市場淘汰賽將正式開啟。“補貼退坡之后,新能源車企需要真正靠產品和服務從燃油車的手中爭搶用戶。”

In response, mr ning said there had been a \"high tolerance\" for new-energy vehicles, but that competition for new-energy vehicles would be more intense and the market knockout race would officially open from 2020. \"After the subsidy retreat, new energy companies need to really rely on products and services to compete for customers from fuel vehicles.\"

  如今,包括新能源車在內的整個汽車產業鏈都在加大對外開放的力度。以動力電池為例,隨著國內電池市場對外資企業開放,執行了近四年的動力電池“白名單”成為歷史,外資巨頭聞風而動,并在華進行了大規模布局。據不完全統計,松下、SK、LG化學、三星SDI這四家企業近一年在中國投資動力電池產業總額已經超過570億元。

Nowadays, the entire auto industry chain, including new energy vehicles, is opening up more to the outside world. Take the power battery as an example, with the domestic battery market open to foreign companies, the implementation of nearly four years of power battery \"white list\" has become a history, foreign giants heard the wind, and carried out a large-scale layout in China. According to incomplete statistics, Panasonic, SK, LG Chemical and Samsung SDI have invested more than 57 billion yuan in the power battery industry in China in the past year.

  市場競爭的加劇使得國內動力電池企業的淘汰賽愈演愈烈。2017年曾在國內行業裝機量排名第五位的國能電池,由于研發速度跟不上,產品不達標,導致訂單大幅減少;動力電池企業湖北猛獅也因債臺高筑,資不抵債,進入了破產清算。

The intensification of market competition makes the elimination of domestic power battery enterprises more and more intense. In 2017, the state-owned battery, which had the fifth-largest installed capacity in the domestic industry, suffered a sharp reduction in orders due to the lack of R