站内查询
您现在的位置是:主页 > 皇冠官网app下载 > 澳大利亞火災或引發經濟連鎖反應
澳大利亞火災或引發經濟連鎖反應
2020-01-11 17:03  www.idc-online.cn

  澳大利亚森林大火蔓延数月后势头仍未减弱,对当地生态环境、生态系统和野生动物数量造成大面积破坏,引发全球关注。业内担忧大火不利影响或会延展至经济领域,引发连锁反应。

Australia's forest fires have not waned for months, causing widespread damage to the local environment, ecosystems and wildlife, sparking global concern. The industry fears that the fires could adversely affect the economy, triggering a ripple effect.

  此次澳大利亚火灾始于2019年9月,持续时间近4个月,造成至少24人死亡、数百栋民居和数千公顷土地被毁。在此背景之下,本就陷入疲软的澳大利亚经济进一步承压。

The Australian fire, which began in September 2019 and lasted nearly four months, left at least 24 dead, hundreds of homes and thousands of hectares of land destroyed. Against this backdrop, Australia's already weak economy is under further strain.

  “此次山林大火不利于澳大利亚2019年四季度和2020年一季度的经济增长,尤其会挫伤该国旅游、区域贸易、建筑以及农业生产等领域的经济活动。”盛宝银行澳大利亚市场策略师埃莉诺·克雷格(EleanorCreagh)告诉上证报,她预计大火将给澳洲经济造成数十亿美元的损失。

“The wildfires are not conducive to Australia's economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2020, and in particular will hurt the country's economic activity in areas such as tourism, regional trade, construction and agricultural production. Eleanor Creagh, Australian market strategist at Shengbao Bank, told the Shanghai Stock Exchange that she expected the fires to cost the Australian economy billions of dollars.

  大火还打击了市场信心。澳新银行-罗伊摩根(ANZ-RoyMorgan)每周消费者信心调查报告数据显示,在2020年第一周,澳洲消费信心下降至,较该机构此前一次的调查数据下降幅度达%,创近4年来最低。而在2010年至2019年期间,该数据1月份第一周的平均增幅为%。

The fire also hit market confidence. ANZ-Roy Morgan's weekly consumer confidence survey data showed that in the first week of 2020, Australia's consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in nearly four years, down% from its previous survey. And between 2010 and 2019, the data averaged% in the first week of January.

  2020年刚开局市场信心就处于较为糟糕的状态,澳新银行澳大利亚经济负责人戴维·普兰克(DavidPlank)将其归咎于森林大火,他认为在当前炎热天气下,后期可能还会有关于大火的可怕消息传出。

Market confidence was in a worse shape just after the start of 2020, with ANZ's head of the Australian economy, David Plank, blaming the forest fires, believing there could be dire news of the blaze later in the current hot weather.

  经济增长面临的不确定性或将对澳大利亚的货币政策产生影响。安保资本(AMPCapital)驻悉尼的投资策略主管谢恩·奥利弗预计,大火可能会令澳大利亚今年一季度经济增长陷入停滞,并迫使澳大利亚央行提前降息。

The uncertainty facing economic growth may have an impact on Australia's monetary policy. Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital in Sydney, predicted the fire could bring Australia's economic growth to a standstill in the first quarter of the year and force the RBA to cut interest rates ahead of schedule.

  “在政府不愿放松财政政策之时,火灾事件为澳大利亚央行实施宽松货币政策提供了动力,预计该央行将在2月份降息25个基点。”埃莉诺·克雷格说。

“At a time when the government is reluctant to relax its fiscal policy, the fires have fueled the RBA's loose monetary policy, which is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in February. said Eleanor Craig.

  作为澳大利亚最密切的贸易伙伴之一,中国相关产业在此次火灾中是否会受影响也备受关注。当前来看,市场认为影响领域聚焦在能源领域。

As one of Australia's closest trading partners, whether China's related industries will be affected by the fire is also under scrutiny. For now, the market believes that the impact area is focused on energy.

  “中国是澳大利亚的主要能源贸易伙伴,合作领域包括煤炭、天然气、铁矿石、铝土矿等。中国部分上市公司在澳大利亚直接或者间接投资原矿。预计火灾后,当地矿场短期内不太可能扩产,可能会抑制煤炭、稀土矿、铝土矿等产量,部分产品如稀土、铝土等有望涨价。”在线金融服务交易商CMCMarkets的市场分析师任震鸣告诉上证报。

“China is Australia's leading energy trading partner in areas such as coal, gas, iron ore and bauxite. Some listed companies in China invest directly or indirectly in raw ore in Australia. After the fire, the local mine is not likely to expand production in the short term, may curb the production of coal, rare earth ore, bauxite, and some products such as rare earth and bauxite are expected to increase prices. Ren Zhenming, market analyst at online financial services dealer CMC Markets, told the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

  此前市场传闻称,澳洲火灾影响力拓港口的CapeLambert出口码头,造成部分设施受损,还被迫关闭了部分出口码头。传闻同时称东海岸山火已经蔓延到矿山密集的西部海岸线。对此,我的钢铁网(Mysteel)8日回应称,目前力拓港口码头未出现大规模火灾,仅出现一起由于货船装卸造成的小型火情,且已全部解决,未对发运产生影响。

Prior to the market rumors that the Australian fire affected Rio Tinto port Cape Lambert export terminal, caused damage to some of the facilities, but also forced to close some of the export terminals. It is also rumored that the east coast wildfires have spread to the mine-intensive western coastline. Mysteel responded on the 8th that there was no large-scale fire at rio's port terminal, but only a small fire caused by the handling of the cargo ship, which had been completely resolved and had no impact on the shipment.

  生态科普作者任辉告诉上证报,创纪录的高温、持续的干旱以及澳大利亚方面应对不足共同造成了此次灾难性的火灾。

Ren Hui, author of eco-science, told the Shanghai Stock Exchange that record high temperatures, persistent droughts and Australia's inability to cope with the disaster.